Derbyshire vs Durham Cricket Predictions, Tips & Picks

cricket / England / One-Day Cup

21.07.2026 10:00

Derbyshire

256/950.0 ov257/549.1 ov

Durham

Finished

Derbyshire vs Durham Predictions

Draw No Bet

BTR Win ProbabilityDurham

62%

38%62%

1Derbyshire38%2Durham62%

Confidence72%Best odds1.57Bookmakers7

Prediction Summary62.3% implied probability from 7 bookmakers

odds dropped by 8.7% on average
best bookmaker price is 4.1% above the market average
Historical Tipster Predictions: published picks across all sports priced in the 1.50-1.59 odds range won 63.0% from 60,167 settled predictions
Historical Tipster Predictions: the Cricket archive priced in the 1.50-1.59 odds range returned 60.6% wins from 94 settled picks
Recent Hypothetical Picks: the broader match database at current odds shows 60.4% wins in the 1.50-1.59 odds range from 65,270 settled outcome checks
Recent Hypothetical Picks: Cricket backtesting at current odds returned 73.3% wins in the 1.50-1.59 odds range from 15 settled outcomes
Recent Hypothetical Picks: the Cricket match database shows 2nd team win in Moneyline Full Time Including OT using current odds in the 1.50-1.59 odds range winning 69.2% from 13 settled outcomes.

Opening Odds vs Current Odds

1Derbyshire

Opening2.16

Current2.50

Drifted15.4%

2Durham

Opening1.65

Current1.51

Dropped8.7%

Odds Stats by SourceNon-favorite outcomes while Durham is the market favorite:

For 1st team win in Moneyline in the 2.50-2.59 odds range: Historical Tipster Predictions won 36.8% / lost 63.2% from 95 real archived picks; Recent Hypothetical Picks won 7.7% / lost 92.3% from 13 settled market-outcome tests.

Over/Under Total Runs

BTR Win ProbabilityUnder 575.551%OpenClose

49%51%

Over575.549%Under575.551%

Confidence38%Best odds1.83Bookmakers2

Prediction Summary51.0% implied probability from 2 bookmakers

Historical Tipster Predictions: across every sport, tipster picks in the 1.80-1.89 odds range won 53.2% from 160,093 settled records
Historical Tipster Predictions: Cricket picks at published odds in the 1.80-1.89 odds range won 60.7% from 191 settled predictions
Recent Hypothetical Picks: all-sports backtesting using current odds in the 1.80-1.89 odds range returned 49.9% wins from 141,110 settled market tests
Recent Hypothetical Picks: the Cricket match database using current odds in the 1.80-1.89 odds range won 49.5% from 93 settled outcome checks
Recent Hypothetical Picks: Cricket backtesting for Under in Over/Under Total Runs Full Match, priced by current odds in the 1.80-1.89 odds range, won 75.0% from 32 settled market tests.

Opening Odds vs Current Odds

Over575.5

Opening1.87

Current1.87

No move0.0%

Under575.5

Opening1.80

Current1.80

No move0.0%

Odds Stats by SourceNon-favorite outcomes while Under Under 575.5 is the market favorite:

For Over in Over/Under Total Runs in the 1.80-1.89 odds range: Historical Tipster Predictions won 60.7% / lost 39.3% from 191 real archived picks; Recent Hypothetical Picks won 25.7% / lost 74.3% from 35 settled market-outcome tests.

BTR Win ProbabilityUnder 582.551%OpenClose

49%51%

Over582.549%Under582.551%

Confidence38%Best odds1.83Bookmakers2

Prediction Summary51.0% implied probability from 2 bookmakers

Historical Tipster Predictions: across every sport, tipster picks in the 1.80-1.89 odds range won 53.2% from 160,093 settled records
Historical Tipster Predictions: Cricket picks at published odds in the 1.80-1.89 odds range won 60.7% from 191 settled predictions
Recent Hypothetical Picks: all-sports backtesting using current odds in the 1.80-1.89 odds range returned 49.9% wins from 141,110 settled market tests
Recent Hypothetical Picks: the Cricket match database using current odds in the 1.80-1.89 odds range won 49.5% from 93 settled outcome checks
Recent Hypothetical Picks: Cricket backtesting for Under in Over/Under Total Runs Full Match, priced by current odds in the 1.80-1.89 odds range, won 75.0% from 32 settled market tests.

Opening Odds vs Current Odds

Over582.5

Opening1.87

Current1.87

No move0.0%

Under582.5

Opening1.80

Current1.80

No move0.0%

Odds Stats by SourceNon-favorite outcomes while Under Under 582.5 is the market favorite:

For Over in Over/Under Total Runs in the 1.80-1.89 odds range: Historical Tipster Predictions won 60.7% / lost 39.3% from 191 real archived picks; Recent Hypothetical Picks won 25.7% / lost 74.3% from 35 settled market-outcome tests.

How BTR Win Probability is Calculated

Standard sports statistics are completely blind to real-world context like team motivation, tactical lineup shifts, or irregular lower-league match outcomes.

Our BTR Win Probability uses a double-layered, anomaly-resistant algorithm to cut through market noise and deliver the authentic layout of a match:

Historical Tipster Predictions: We compare today's prices with a proprietary archive of over 1,000,000 settled tipster predictions tracked since 2015, showing how real published picks performed in the same odds range, sport, market, period, and outcome. This matters because very few prediction sites can support their probabilities with such a large transparent record of real historical picks.

Recent Hypothetical Picks: We also backtest recent settled odds markets by treating each available outcome as a hypothetical pick, then checking it against the real result. This shows how similar prices performed in live match conditions, even when no tipster selected that outcome.

BTR Probability Blend: The final percentage balances bookmaker implied probability, historical tipster predictions, recent hypothetical picks, market movement, and bookmaker consensus. This helps reduce blind trust in very short odds while still rewarding prices that have performed well in similar conditions.

By fusing traditional lines with a decade of community conviction, we provide an unfiltered, back-tested projection you can trust.

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