AGMK vs Istiklol Dushanbe (European Handicap) prediction

I will try a surprise in this match. I believe the chances for eliminating the opponent are equal for both parties and the odds are not that equal. AGMK have no experience in Asian international tournaments while Istiklol are constant participant in the AFC Cup in the past several years and even played at the final in 2017. The hosts qualified for this tournament due to winning the Uzbek cup while in the local league they had to fight for survival in the relegation group. The hosts must be in bad form as they played no matches in 2019 while Istiklol already played three friendlies this year and even won against Tom Tomsk which is not a particulalrly easy thing to do even in a friendly game. This is an elimination game and I think experience and better form will divert victory to the underdog. They are not strong enough to win by handicap in Uzbekistan so winning by one goal margin is the most probable win for them which I will try to catch with this handicap. The hosts sold their topscorer from last season and should have problems in attacking mode.