Ranking the Favorites for the Four Remaining ATP Finals Spots as Zverev Punches His Ticket

There are moments in a tennis season when the path to glory becomes sharply defined. In Vienna, that threshold arrived with a whisper rather than a bang—an anticlimactic withdrawal handed Alexander Zverev safe passage to the semifinals in the Austrian capital and with that, secured him the honor of becoming the fourth man to book his place at the end-of-year ATP Finals in Turin.

Yet even a subdued qualification cannot dampen the magnitude of what the German has accomplished. Zverev, now with eight ATP Finals berths in nine years, joins an exclusive set—Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and Novak Djokovic guaranteed their own spots before him.

The manner of qualification, sealed after Tallon Griekspoor’s withdrawal, belies the drama and consistency of Zverev’s campaign. A runner-up finish at the Australian Open and a series of deep runs on the tour propelled him above the cut line. The 28-year-old now stands among the game’s most reliable big-match players, with a striking record of two ATP Finals crowns claimed in 2018 and 2021, as well as being a semi-finalist in 2019 and 2024, and now, once again, a man for the season’s grand finale. Only an injury in 2022 interrupted his pursuit of a perfect run of nine consecutive successful qualifications.

Despite his pedigree on tour, Zverev remains without a maiden Grand Slam title, and online betting sites can’t see that coming in January’s Australian Open. The latest tennis betting at Bovada odds currently makes the two-time finalist a distant 16/1 shot to reign supreme in Melbourne, well behind joint 6/4 favorites and current tour dominators Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. Odds on a potential Zverev triumph in Turin will surely be priced similarly.

Even with Zverev’s qualification, the field for Turin is still only half set, and the intensity for the four remaining places is reaching a boiling point. So, who stands next in line for a spot at tennis’s ultimate showcase? Let’s take a look.

Few have matched Taylor Fritz’s consistency in 2025. The American began the year as a rising top-10 player and has sharpened his edge into something resembling inevitability. Eastbourne will be marked in his personal record book—a fourth title on England’s South Coast secured with a demolition of the seeds and a gritty win over Tommy Paul. This was not just a new trophy, but the confirmation of Fritz as a title threat on any surface.

Look deeper, and the saga becomes even more compelling. In Beijing, Fritz gave world No. 1 Jannik Sinner all he could handle throughout three grueling sets in a match bristling with power and tactical sophistication. Grand Slam results bolster his claim: quarterfinals at both the Australian and US Opens and a memorable upset over Casper Ruud at Roland Garros, as well as a career-best semifinal berth at Wimbledon.

His lack of prior ATP Finals pedigree only heightens the stakes, but the American is a debutant-in-waiting, riding one of the hottest streaks on tour. Twelve wins from his last fifteen matches, including semifinal appearances in Tokyo and a final in Beijing, have given him 3,885 points and placed him firmly in the hunt.

Raw energy, American bravado, and show-stopping athleticism—Ben Shelton’s 2025 campaign has been impossible to ignore. At just 23, the young prodigy has turned immense promise into substance; his monstrous serve and newfound net aggression dent the armor of even tennis royalty. Munich set the tone: dispatching Alexander Zverev in the semis as an underdog, then lifting his maiden European trophy. Fireworks, too, in Tokyo—his defeat of Novak Djokovic sent tremors through the tour and signaled that Shelton is no flash in the pan.

Shelton’s Grand Slam run at Flushing Meadows electrified the city—a five-set US Open semifinal where he outlasted Tsitsipas. Quarterfinals in Australia (besting Holger Rune) and a solid Roland Garros underline his range. Yet the Americans’ rise is not without turbulence: clutch struggles surfaced, most notably in a Shanghai quarterfinal ouster. His 3,770 points place him sixth, but with Alex de Minaur nipping at his heels (a mere 25 points back), the race is fraught with peril.

The formula is razor-sharp: Shelton must hold nerve and firepower, targeting at least a semifinal in Basel or Paris. Secure those, and a debut in Turin is his next statement to the tennis world.

If 2025 proves anything, it’s that Alex de Minaur has made resilience into an art. Injury tripped him early in the year, but like a prizefighter who refuses to stay down, the Demon has kept coming. His European Open title in October culminated in a hard-fought victory over Ugo Humbert after more than three hours of battle, and further impressive displays will surely see the Aussie propel himself to Turin.

De Minaur has not stopped knocking on the door all year long. Quarterfinals at his home Slam in Australia, plus steady second-week showings elsewhere. Win over Rublev in Melbourne? Critical. Quiet but relentless, de Minaur has gone on a ten-set unbeaten run across autumn’s Asian swing, solidifying his status as the season’s ironman. Deep runs in Vienna, Basel, or especially Paris should be enough to seal the deal.

No player’s 2025 has oscillated between euphoria and agony quite like Lorenzo Musetti’s. The numbers may paint a picture of the provisional—3,685 points, eighth spot, margin for error almost nil. But watch Musetti on the Roland Garros clay, and statistics give way to poetry. A string of upsets, most notably over the mountainous Karen Khachanov, propelled him to the semifinal—a kind of coming-of-age party played out under the Parisian sky.

Now, on the edge, Musetti must summon his clay-court composure on foreign terrain. With Felix Auger-Aliassime and de Minaur looming, nothing short of a semifinal berth in the upcoming ATP Paris will suffice.

Zverev’s place is secured — but for the rest, everything is still in motion. Basel and Paris will decide who earns the last tickets to Turin.

The margins are small, the stakes are enormous, and the season’s finale is set to be a battle of belief, endurance, and timing.