Swaziland vs Guinea prediction (DNB)

Swaziland takes on Guinea in Africa Cup of Nations qualification. This bet is a really strange one and I am really confused why the odds on Guinea's win are so high, so I will take a way safer option with a huge odd still. Of course I am losing a good price, but it's African football where miracles often happen. My main idea why odds on Guinea's win should be lower is that Guinea is still fighting for a place in the finals and they are just 3 points behind Zimbabwe. Swaziland is also in the same place as Guinea, they have 5 points aswell, but Guinea seems to be still a better team for me. Now let's have a look on earlier games' markets. When Guinea hosted Swaziland a year ago, Guinea's price to win at home was around 1.35 while Swaziland's around 9.00. Swaziland got that game 2-1 on road and that was a pretty sensational thing. Now let's have a look to Swaziland's games. At home they drew 1-1 with Zimbabwe (odds for Swaziland's win were around 2.85), while a lees than a week later they got demolished by Zimbabwe while playing on road (odds for Swaziland's win were around 13.00). The only explanation for this is that Zimbabwe used 5 corrections comparing the line-ups of these two games, while Swaziland did only one correction. Anyway, I still can't understand these odds movements. Okay, now the game Swaziland played at home against Malawi. They drew that game 2-2. Odds on Swaziland's win were around 2.20 while on Malawi's around 2.80. Malawi is currently the weakest team in this group with just two points. Guinea also played them at home and also drew, but 0-0. The odds for Guinea's win were around 1.45 while for Malawi's around 6.50. The difference is really huge comparing Swaziland's odds to win at home over Malawi and Guinea's to win at home against Malawi, so we can say that Guinea is a bit better team according to bookies. Of course you might say it's a wrong decision to make something from such an unvalueable evidence like this, but I will stick to my opinion that Guinea is underrated here by bookies. I believe they can win here or at least get a draw, Guinea's roster seems to be way more dangerous with well-known names as Lass Bengoura (Rayo Vallecano), Ibrahima Conte (Anderlecht) and others. Guinea DNB in fulltime (AH 0 is an alternative).