Sp. Luqueno vs Diaz prediction (Over/Under)

In 9 rounds played on own ground, Sp. Luqueno scored just 5 goals and received 12 goals while Diaz score just 6 goals. Both teams score more goals away, 11 goals, and because of that I think that the home team will try to close the game and to score just one goals to get the victory while the guest team will try to score in case the other team will score as well. I think that this game can't have more than 3 goals and because of that my prediction is under 3.5 goals.