Cruzeiro vs Gremio (Asian Handicap) prediction

First game of the semifinal of Copa do Brasil . Cruzeiro is in good form, unbeaten in six games and only one defeat in the last 10 games at home! Importantly, the team has improved a lot in the defensive system and conceded only 2 goals in the last six games. For this game, the coach Mano Menezes has most of the top players available and certainly had used the best team, perhaps use; Rafael, Lucas, Léo, Bruno Rodrigo, Edimar, Henrique, Lucas Romero, Robinho, Arrascaeta, Rafael Sobis and Ramón Ábila The team is very focused for this game without many worries. referring to relegation in Serie A, due to the remarkable improvement of the team in last games which resulted in a more comfortable position for the team in the standings; now they are in the thirteenth position. Another important point to mention is about rest and physical conditions. Mano Menezes used a mixed team last weekend against Vitoria by Serie A and rested important players like Abila, Sobis, Robinho, Bruno Rodrigo and Edimar in the match against Vitoria. While Gremio had an intense game against a Internacional RS in Derby Game, very exhausting. Some players don't participate in the recent practice to try to recover the physical conditions considered ideal for the game. Gremio is a team with defensive characteristics, especially in games on road. So I do not imagine they really attack in the game, if only because it's just the first game of the semi final, and draw or even lose by 1 goal difference; It would not be considered a bad result for Away team. Also add that besides the defensive, the team has a low quality in attack and scored only seven goals in his last 12 games. Luan who is considered one of the main scorer of team; this for 12 games without scoring goals. So if we consider the great attack of Cruzeiro, defensive improved of home team, the defensive posture and the low quality of the attack in away team; it's hard to imagine that Gremio can win the game or hold a draw. Recently the teams played for Serie A and Cruzeiro won 1-0. Adding that the H2h with Cruzeiro playing at home are 15 games and Gremio won only 1. More than 50,000 tickets were sold for the game! I would be very surprised if Cruzeiro does not win. I will protect half the stake just not exclude the hypothesis of Gremio be 100% effective in defense, and Home team show some nervousness as over time, or by the fact happen any provocations by Away team; as delaying the throw-in game, personal provocations, and other acts that may contribute to try to destabilize Home team that is theoretically more pressed to win the game by playing at home. This is very normal in matches of this competition. But I still think Home Team has got a lot of quality to win the game, including by some goal difference.