Nottinghamshire vs Somerset Cricket Predictions, Tips & Picks

cricket / England / One-Day Cup

21.07.2026 10:00

Somerset

258/950.0 ov259/644.4 ov

Nottinghamshire

Finished

Somerset vs Nottinghamshire Predictions

Draw No Bet

BTR Win ProbabilitySomerset

54%

54%46%

1Somerset54%2Nottinghamshire46%

Confidence66%Best odds1.91Bookmakers7

Prediction Summary54.0% implied probability from 7 bookmakers

odds dropped by 7.8% on average
best bookmaker price is 9.9% above the market average
best bookmaker price is 15.1% above the lowest available odds
best price is 3.2% above fair odds
Historical Tipster Predictions: the all-sports archive for the 1.70-1.79 odds range shows 55.4% wins from 113,662 settled tipster picks
Historical Tipster Predictions: Cricket picks at published odds in the 1.70-1.79 odds range won 54.8% from 155 settled predictions
Recent Hypothetical Picks: across all sports, settled market outcomes tested with current odds in the 1.70-1.79 odds range won 53.6% from 89,373 backtested outcomes
Recent Hypothetical Picks: recent Cricket market outcomes priced by current odds in the 1.70-1.79 odds range won 45.6% from 90 backtests
Recent Hypothetical Picks: the Cricket match database shows 1st team win in Moneyline Full Time Including OT using current odds in the 1.70-1.79 odds range winning 50.0% from 14 settled outcomes.

Opening Odds vs Current Odds

1Somerset

Opening1.89

Current1.74

Dropped7.9%

2Nottinghamshire

Opening1.87

Current2.04

Drifted9.0%

Odds Stats by SourceNon-favorite outcomes while Nottinghamshire is the market favorite:

For 2nd team win in Moneyline Full Time Including OT in the 2.00-2.09 odds range: Historical Tipster Predictions won 64.3% / lost 35.7% from 14 real archived picks; Recent Hypothetical Picks won 50.0% / lost 50.0% from 12 settled market-outcome tests.

How BTR Win Probability is Calculated

Standard sports statistics are completely blind to real-world context like team motivation, tactical lineup shifts, or irregular lower-league match outcomes.

Our BTR Win Probability uses a double-layered, anomaly-resistant algorithm to cut through market noise and deliver the authentic layout of a match:

Historical Tipster Predictions: We compare today's prices with a proprietary archive of over 1,000,000 settled tipster predictions tracked since 2015, showing how real published picks performed in the same odds range, sport, market, period, and outcome. This matters because very few prediction sites can support their probabilities with such a large transparent record of real historical picks.

Recent Hypothetical Picks: We also backtest recent settled odds markets by treating each available outcome as a hypothetical pick, then checking it against the real result. This shows how similar prices performed in live match conditions, even when no tipster selected that outcome.

BTR Probability Blend: The final percentage balances bookmaker implied probability, historical tipster predictions, recent hypothetical picks, market movement, and bookmaker consensus. This helps reduce blind trust in very short odds while still rewarding prices that have performed well in similar conditions.

By fusing traditional lines with a decade of community conviction, we provide an unfiltered, back-tested projection you can trust.

My pick