Spain won in Split, but the 1–2 score hides how uncomfortable the night became. Croatia led at half-time through Ivan Perišić, created chances despite having much less of the ball, and were still level with eleven minutes left. Mikel Merino, sent on at the break, scored twice to turn the match. His winner arrived after Perišić’s second yellow card left Croatia with ten players. Spain reached the UEFA Nations League quarter-finals; Croatia were left with another defeat after their 0–7 loss to England three days earlier.
On our Croatia vs Spain match page, our tipsters published 19 predictions. Only 4 won; 12 lost and 3 were half-lost. Some of our tipsters needed Spain to win by at least two goals; others needed an away lead at half-time. Croatia led at the break, and Spain won by just one. Yet two Over 2.5 picks and one Under 3.5 pick all won: the final score landed on exactly three goals.
We went back through the moments that changed the score and the conditions attached to our tipsters’ picks. UEFA’s Nations League report establishes the match sequence; Sofascore supplies the chance and possession figures. Our odds archive and each settled prediction are linked below, so you can check the prices and outcomes for yourself.
Table of Contents
Croatia’s chances behind Spain’s possession
Merino’s introduction and Perišić’s red card
What the odds actually show
How our tipsters’ predictions settled
Why three goals split the predictions
Sources and further reading
Conclusion
1. How the comeback unfolded
| Minute | Turning point |
|---|---|
| 17′ | Perišić put Croatia ahead with a header after a sharp opening spell. |
| Half-time | Croatia led 1–0. Spain coach Luis de la Fuente brought on Mikel Merino for Álex Baena. |
| 61′ | Dani Olmo found Merino, who finished to bring Spain level. |
| 79′ | Perišić received a second yellow card. Croatia played the closing minutes with ten men. |
| 88′ | Merino scored again, completing Spain’s comeback and the 1–2 final score. |
UEFA’s account confirms the sequence: Croatia’s early lead, Merino’s equaliser as a substitute, Perišić’s dismissal and the late winner. Sofascore’s breakdown identifies Olmo’s pass for the first Spain goal and Martín Zubimendi’s contribution to the second.
The timing matters. Spain did not convert territorial control into a lead until the final minutes, and their two goals came from a player who started on the bench. Croatia’s dismissal helped Spain keep the pressure on, but Merino had already made it 1–1 while both sides had eleven players.
2. Croatia’s chances behind Spain’s possession
The context made Croatia’s first half striking. England had beaten them 7–0 on 3 October, yet they responded by taking the lead against Spain. The home side attacked quickly rather than trying to match Spain pass for pass. Perišić’s opener was a reward for that approach, and goalkeeper Unai Simón had to keep Spain within reach.
Sofascore recorded 72% possession for Spain, but 10 shots apiece and a 5–3 Croatia advantage in shots on target. Its expected-goals estimate slightly favoured Croatia, 1.17 to 1.08; those xG figures are Sofascore’s model, not an official match score. Simón made four saves. A reader seeing only Spain’s possession figure would miss how often Croatia turned a smaller share of the ball into danger.
That distinction helps explain why the 1–2 result was narrower than Spain’s price suggested. Spain controlled where much of the game was played. Croatia still found openings, and Spain’s goalkeeper made the saves required for the comeback to remain possible. After the match, De la Fuente acknowledged Croatia’s pressure and Simón’s role in the Spanish federation’s post-match account.
3. Merino’s introduction and Perišić’s red card
De la Fuente changed the match at half-time by introducing Merino. Sofascore credits him with two goals from two shots on target and rated him 8.3, its highest player rating in this fixture. He gave Spain a more direct finishing threat in a game where long spells of circulation had produced little advantage on the scoreboard. Sofascore’s match analysis details the substitution and both finishes.
The sending-off was the other decisive change. Perišić had supplied Croatia’s goal and an attacking outlet; his second booking in the 79th minute removed both a player and a way to relieve Spain’s pressure. Merino’s late winner came nine minutes later. The dismissal did not create Spain’s equaliser, but it changed the conditions in which the final goal was scored. UEFA’s matchday report makes the same sequence clear.
Spain’s reward was a place in the Nations League quarter-finals. The official UEFA Nations League site has the competition fixtures and standings.
4. What the odds actually show
Spain were the clear favourite in our odds archive. The Bet365 1X2 row gives one concrete view of how the displayed prices moved:
| Full-time result | Opening price | Later displayed price |
|---|---|---|
| Croatia win | 6.50 | 9.00 |
| Draw | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| Spain win | 1.44 | 1.25 |
In that Bet365 row, Spain shortened from 1.44 to 1.25 while Croatia drifted from 6.50 to 9.00. Our archive labels the first column Open, but does not independently timestamp the later displayed price as a pre-kick-off close. The figures show the direction recorded on our page; they do not establish a verified closing line. Other bookmakers and handicap markets have separate prices.
What is clear without stretching the data is that Spain were priced as the much likelier winner. The harder question for tipsters was how Spain would win. A one-goal comeback satisfied the basic away-win outcome, but failed Spain −1.5 and −1.75 handicaps. Croatia’s first-half lead also beat every Spain-to-lead-at-half-time pick from our tipsters.
5. How our tipsters’ 19 predictions settled
Our fixture page records 19 predictions from our tipsters: 4 won, 12 lost and 3 half-lost. These seven picks show why the same 1–2 result produced different outcomes. Each tipster name links to the original selection and its recorded settlement.
| Our tipster and pick | Odds | Recorded result | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| alepou: Over 2.5 goals | 1.46 | Won | The winner made the total three goals. |
| domska: Under 3.5 goals | 1.79 | Won | Three goals stayed below the higher line. |
| koobel bc: Croatia +2.25 Asian handicap | 1.48 | Won | A one-goal defeat covered the home handicap. |
| vije: Spain −1.5 Asian handicap | 1.75 | Lost | Spain won by one, not two or more. |
| neymar: Spain −1.25 Asian handicap | 1.63 | Half-lost | The −1 half was refunded; the −1.5 half lost. |
| mister_prediction: Spain to lead at half-time | 1.73 | Lost | Croatia led 1–0 at the interval. |
| hamkam2xr: Both teams to score — No | 2.00 | Lost | Perišić and Merino scored for their respective teams. |
Our fourth winner was vanemilmkd’s Over 2.5 pick. All three half-losses came from Spain −1.25 handicap selections. You can inspect every call on our full tip list, including the Croatia-or-draw picks and the stronger Spain handicaps that lost.
6. Why three goals split the predictions
Merino’s 88th-minute winner changed the score from 1–1 to 1–2 and settled three of our winning predictions at once. Our two Over 2.5 tipsters needed that third goal. Our Under 3.5 tipster could still win because a fourth never came. These picks targeted different thresholds, so they were both right at a total of exactly three.
Our handicap picks show the cost of asking for a convincing Spain win. The −1.5 selection lost outright on a one-goal margin; each −1.25 pick was half-lost because the −1 portion was refunded and the −1.5 portion lost. Our Croatia +2.25 tipster won despite Croatia losing. Saying only that our tipsters “backed Spain” would miss the decisive terms of those bets.
That is where the match data and our picks meet. Spain had 72% possession, but Croatia put more shots on target. Simón made four saves. Our archive priced Spain as the likely winner, while Croatia’s chances help explain why the bigger away-win margins proved fragile.
7. Sources and further reading
For the confirmed chronology and qualification outcome, read UEFA’s official Matchday 4 report. Sofascore’s match analysis supplies the possession, shots, xG and player ratings used here. The Spanish federation’s post-match interview adds De la Fuente’s view of Croatia’s pressure and Simón’s saves. Our odds archive and settled tip list document the prices and predictions.
Conclusion
Spain’s price in our archive pointed to the eventual winner, but the scoreline punished most of our tipsters’ more specific calls. Croatia led at half-time, forced Simón into four saves and lost by one goal; that combination broke the Spain half-time and larger-handicap picks. Merino’s late winner pushed the total to three, giving our Over 2.5 and Under 3.5 tipsters the narrow window they needed. The full record is 4 wins, 12 losses and 3 half-losses from 19 predictions. That split captures this match more honestly than simply saying our tipsters picked the favourite.
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*Odds – Are not always accurate and can change.
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