Vitoria vs Gremio (Asian Handicap) prediction

Vitoria got very important 3 victories in last 4 games to avoid relegation zone. They have beaten 2 important rivals in relegation race and more important fact is they started to play better football. They had 8 goal attempts and 6 shots on goal on the last match where they lead 0-4 at the end of first half. Key defender Victor Ramos will return on this match while striker Dagoberto is suspended. They have lost 4/14 at home games, which is %28. On the other side, Gremio has good and bad news. GK Grohe and midfielder Walace will play on this game but the more important is they will miss their 2 best players. Left Back Marcelo and best player in team Luan will miss game after red card. Luan scored 6, assits 3. They haven't score a goal in 5 of last 6 games. They lost 5 games in a row on road. They got only 2/14 victories on road which is %14. Gremio has changed coach 2 weeks ago but they lost Cruzerio last week. Overall, I reckon %71 chance of Gremio will not win and I think it is value Vitoria DNB at 1.61.