Romboli vs Galarza prediction

I don't understand the odds here. Fernando Romboli is 311# and his oponent his a top 500 player. Romboli already won a Challenger this year on south America and despite being in poor form he showed some amelioration in his last game. He is like 80% of the South American player who can"t play in Europe, I can't explain why but this is something who happens a lot. He is back in a country that he like and I expect him to win.