Criciuma vs Luverdense prediction (1x2)

Criciuma in sixth position in league and three points behind the G4 (group of teams that gain access for Serie A) Criciuma gained only 2 of last 9 points played. Perhaps this explains the good value of this odd. The team is very strong at home, 17 of 21 points gained in league was won at home, with 5 wins and 2 draws, unbeaten at home. Forward Roberto recovered from this injury and returned to training. Luverdense also failed to good results in recent games and are in tenth position. For this game; Ricardo is out, and Kazu (only 17 years) probably replace. I believe don't are easy game. But I don't see Luverdense withstand the force that Criciuma has when play at home. Also I don't imagine that a team as Criciuma, with potential for promotion, stay many games without a win. Playing at home with no significant absences, against a weaker adversary; it's time for Criciuma to win again. Odds 1.80 are wrong in my opinion; the correct should be something near to 1.65 in these conditions. I believe the odds will drop much until start of game.