Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid prediction (Over/Under)

We have derby match of Spain Primera League this week between top of the table teams. Barcelona are 1st on the table ( with one game less) , but with same number of points like Atletico Madrid, both teams have 48 points. Barcelona  15W-3D-2 L , goal diference 52:16 ( home record 10W-1D and goal diference 38:7) Atletico Madrid 15W-3D-3L goal diference 30:8 ( away record  8W-1D-2L and goal diference 18:3) Head to head in last 5 matches : All matches was won by Barcelona,almost always with one goal difference Form in last 5 matches : Barcelona 4W-1D, goal diference 16:1, Atl Madrid 4W-1D , goal dif 8:0 Injuries and suspension ; Barcelona without Rafinha while Neymar and Alba are doubtful .   Atl Madird without : Tiago and suspended Correa, while Torres is doubtful. Stake in this game are very big and Barcelona with eventual victory will solve a lot of things to winning the title, so I believe that Barcelona will start from the first minute to attack Atletico goal, but on the other hand Atletico defense was terrific (only 8 received goals). If Atletico M. want good result here they will have to take some risk,and this opens up opportunities for Barcelona strikers.  That is why my bet here will be over 2.5 goals Possible results : 2-1,3-1