Southend vs Swindon (European Handicap) prediction

Southend has more than seven years since they didn't get a victory against Swindon and this should be their first victory after those years but ain't be easy. Swindon lost many points away bit they know how to tackle this home team and I am sure that they will make a good game here. Still, I'm a little worry about the guest team and I will not pick 2 AH +1.25 because it could happen to end like 2-0 for the home team and I will lose the bet. Rather, over 1.5 goals should be a much better bet because the desire of the first victory of the home team and the need of the points of the guests should be enough to hit a win.